多元主义：法西斯范式（2026年5月12日）Pluralistic: A fascist paradigm (12 May 2026)

今日链接

法西斯范式（永久链接）

昨天，我参加了一个关于系统思维与政治变革的工作坊，其中包括对唐娜拉·梅多斯的演讲，她的《系统思维入门》是该领域的经典著作：

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking_In_Systems:_A_Primer

“系统思维”是一种分析框架，它将世界视为由相互关联、非线性的组件和关系构成的网络，难以轻易理解或引导。复杂系统不仅仅是“复杂”。机械手表很复杂，因为它有许多部件协同工作，需要训练和专业知识的理解。但它不是“复杂”的，因为每个部分都有特定的功能，可以理解和调整。

在一个复杂的系统中——比如生态系统——各部分以一种不明显的关系网交织在一起，使得很难预测某个扰动会带来什么影响。当一种病害导致某种植物物种灭绝时，土壤稳定性下降，雨季期间发生山体滑坡，改变了附近水道的矿物质含量，进而引发远处下游湖泊中的微生物爆发或鱼类死亡。

但系统思维并不是绝望的说教，它认为你什么都做不了，因为你永远无法预测行动的结果。《系统思维入门》中，梅多斯提出了一套改变系统的杠杆点层级，从最无效的（“常数、数字、参数”）到最有效的（“应对新挑战的范式转变权力”）：

https://www.flickr.com/photos/doctorow/55264856861/

总的来说，梅多斯提出了12个不同的“可在系统中干预的位置”。这些中最无效的——如税收和标准、正负反馈循环——正是我们政治斗争的主要战场，这完全合理。它们是调节系统边际的精细调节旋钮。一旦有了法治（“系统的规则”），你就可以通过修改、废除或制定法律来推动变革：

https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

但当你面对的是一个显著且持续功能失调的系统时，你可能不得不作用于层级更靠上的位置，例如“对系统规则的权力分配”或“系统的目标”；或者最深刻的那个，“产生该系统的范式——其目标、权力结构、规则及其文化”。

思考范式是一种“元认知”，也就是说，“思考你如何思考”。你的范式涵盖了你所有的假设，包括你对如何从其他假设出发的假设：“如果x，那么y”就是一个范式。

The workshop where we were discussing all of this is part of a group whose goal is reversing the antidemocratic movement in our society and the climate emergency that is its backdrop. But as I listened to the speaker and the ensuing discussion, it occurred to me that Meadows' theoretical work was a very good way of describing the successes of the fascist movement in the UK and around the world.

Fascists like Farage and Trump are, at their root, anti-democratic. Their pitch is that the people are incapable of self-determination (as Peter Thiel puts it, "democracy is incompatible with freedom"). They want us to think that all our neighbors are irrational and foolish, and that we, too, are irrational and foolish, and that our safety and prosperity can only be safeguarded if we seek out those few people who are born to rule and liberate them from the petty niceties and regulations that democracy and the rule of law demand.

In other words, the paradigm of democracy is that all of us are capable of both wise self-governance and self-rationalized misgovernance, and each of us has a useful perspective to contribute. The fascist paradigm is that we can't be trusted to rule ourselves, and only the people who are born with "good blood" are capable of directing our lives:

https://pluralistic.net/2025/05/20/big-cornflakes-energy/#caliper-pilled

This is the theory behind "race realism" and "human diversity" and all the other polite names the modern fascist uses to obscure the fact that they're reviving eugenics. It explains the panic over DEI, a panic driven by the belief that lesser people are being elevated to positions of rule and authority that they are genetically incapable of carrying out.

That's why, whenever a disaster arises, fascists demand to know the gender, race and sexual orientation of the pilot, the ship's captain, or the official in charge. If the person who crashed the cargo ship into the bridge has brown skin, we can add another line to the ledger of costs associated with the doomed project to put people who were born to be bossed around in the boss's seat (of course, if the pilot turns out to be a white guy, that proves nothing, except that mistakes sometimes happen).

The revival of fascism in this century has been scarily effective, and at times it can feel unstoppable. Meadows' work on systems thinking provides an explanation for that efficacy – and suggests a theory of change for dispatching fascism back to the graveyard of history. Fascists have made changes to things like laws and feedback loops, rules and distribution of power, but this all stems from a more profound alteration to the system, at the level of the paradigm.

Which suggests that the real fight we have is over that paradigm: we have to convince our neighbors that they are smart enough to rule themselves, and so are we, and so is everyone else. We have to convince them that even the smartest and wisest person (including us, including them) is capable of folly and needs to have checks on their (our) authority.

We need to attack the theory of the "unitary executive" and every other autocratic ideology head on. We have to insist that these aren't just unconstitutional, but that they are ideologically catastrophic. "No kings," because even an omnibenevolent king isn't omniscient, and that means that omnipotence is always omnidestructive in the long run.

法西斯主义的复兴令人恐惧地高效且坚韧——系统思维为这种高效和坚韧提供了合理解释。

嘿，看看这个（永久链接）

客体永久性（永久链接）

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